Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah

Israel is defending its attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon as self-defense.  By itself, this defense is not controversial.  Hezbollah agents entered Israel, killed Israeli citizens, and captured two Israeli soldiers.  Few citizens of any country would object to the use of force by their own governments in a similar situation.

The two important questions, however, are the following: 

1. Is the magnitude and nature of Israel's response in the best interests of Israel?

2. What U.S. policy is in the best interests of the U.S.?

Since I am not an Israeli, I do not take a stand on what Israel should  do.  As an outisde observer, however, my guess is that Israel's current strategy is not in its own best interests.  Hezbollah is not being destoryed, merely displaced.  This means Hezbollah can return to Lebanon or survive elsewhere.  And since Israel's actions strike many Lebanese and others in the Middle East as excessive, the current attacks are an excellent recruitment tactic for Hezbollah.   Thus Israel's chosen path is unlikely to produce long-term security for Israeli citizens.

On the question of U.S. policy, my view is that the U.S. should do nothing.  Yes, I mean nothing.  No visits by Condoleeza Rice to the Middle East.  No statements supporting Isreal or criticizing Israel.  Nothing.  This is my view on all foreign policy issues unless events outside the U.S. have serious and imminent consequences for the U.S.   The situation in Israel / Lebanon does not qualify.

Comments

[Jan]

"On the question of U.S. policy, my view is that the U.S. should do nothing. Yes, I mean nothing."

If Israel is attacked by an army (or plural) then I believe the U.S. will get involved and defend Israel. And EVEN IF it didn't, that great war might spead, destabilize the world economy, etc. Thus, it is in America's best interests to do what it can to prevent a major conflict for happening - so visits and initiatives to cease the violence are in pretty much everybody's interest (I think).

[Lab_Frog]

As also Posted at the Becker-Posner blog on the subject:
The kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers was not the only wrong by Hezbollah, but also the fear that Hezbollah creates in Israel and the costs of Israel defenses that these fears create. Given the mass amounts of missiles fired by Hezbollah, and that Hezbollah is not an outlawed organization, it seems clear that the government and people of Lebanon give passive support to Hezbollah and need to be given stronger incentives to police them. However Israeli policies are also partly to blame for Hezbollah, and thus Israel also needs better incentives to minimize the costs of the conflict. But the government and people of Lebanon has much more influence on the conflict, and thus should pay most of the costs of the conflict, so that they have better incentives. If Lebanon is incapable of policing Hezbollah, then is should lose that part of its territory to a UN created zone or to Israel.

[Rytis]

It's pretty subjective to say that Israel is like an angel amidst the demons. It is known that Israel itself emprisons Palestinians and Lebanese people for political reasons. These two countries are both wrong fighting this silly war. For every quarel there's a peaceful solution. But, unfortunately, not everyone wants to finish it peacefully. Being a European, I share the American values but I'm sorry, you guys have to admit that Bush is a tragedy for the whole world, including the USA. He should be regarded as an ideologic enemy by any libertarian. I am almost sure that Mr.Bush's invisible hand is behind all this madness which he is a great supporter of.

Just to let you know that I'm not a Jew, nor a muslim.